Found out the PCT has a 60% dropout rate by mile 700

I was reading the Pacific Crest Trail Association's annual survey last week and it floored me. Turns out nearly 6 out of 10 hikers who start at the southern terminus don't make it past the Sierra Nevada. I always figured most people quit because of injury or money, but the data says a huge chunk just lose motivation after the first few hundred miles. I'm planning a 2026 thru-hike myself and now I'm rethinking my whole training and gear setup for that middle stretch. Has anyone else seen these stats and changed their route plans because of them?

2 comments

2 Comments

the_tara6d ago

Yeah that stat really made me rethink things too. I used to be one of those people who thought it was all about physical prep, like just get your legs strong enough and you'll push through anything. But seeing that most dropouts are from losing the mental drive completely, it kind of shifted my focus. @jamie_price you're not wrong, I've already started planning little rewards for myself around mile 500 just to keep the mood up. I'm actually thinking about flipping my route now, maybe starting northbound instead of south so I hit the easier terrain first and build up confidence before the Sierra. It's wild how much of this game is in your head and not just your feet.

jamie_price6d ago

lmao honestly that 60% stat makes me feel way better about my inevitable meltdown somewhere around mile 500. i'm already mentally preparing to cry over a granola bar in the desert.